FOXY Guide and Changelog

This page is serves as a guide and changelog to the FOXY projection system, whose page can be found here.

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FOXY (Family of Optimized Expectations for the Year) is a family of models used to project cumulative performance for players and teams through the end of the current season. The system itself, which is proprietary, was created by Addison Kline in 2022 and has been in use since August 29 of that season.

How are teams projected?

A team's final regular-season record is estimated using a number of factors, including every team's current strength as well as their schedule for the rest of the season. A team's strengh is determined by a number of peripheral factors and is adjusted to their schedule (e.g. a team of a given performance level with a difficult schedule to date will be treated more favorably than a team of the same performance that had an easier schedule).

How are players projected?

Similarly to teams, both batters and pitchers are evaluated in the context of the teams they faced. While opponent quality typically skews pitcher performance more than batter performance due to the former's smaller sample size, it nevertheless has a nonnegligible affect on both and is treated as such.

How do these projections compare to rankings?

Though there is frequently an overlap between ranking and projected performance (a player doing well over a long period of time will be more likely to finish the season well), the two tools measure fundametally different things. Rankings solely evaluate past performance with no consideration of the future. Projections, on the other hand, estimate future performance.

Can I use these projections?

If you reference or make use of these projections in any public way, we ask that you credit this site, providing a link if possible.

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Changelog

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